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   MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281600-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1281   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   502 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...northern MO/southeastern IA/north-central   
   IL/northwestern IN   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 281000Z - 281600Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from portions   
   of northern MO, southeastern IA into north-central IL and   
   northwestern IN through 16Z (10 AM CST). Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches   
   in an hour will be possible with isolated 3 to 6 hour totals of   
   2-3 inches.   
      
   DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery Midwest showed scattered showers   
   and embedded thunderstorms from northern MO, southern IA and   
   central IL, located north of a quasi-stationary front that   
   extended eastward from a 998 mb low just west of Salina, KS. SW to   
   WSW 850 mb winds of 30-50 kt were in place to the east of the   
   surface low with overrunning occurring atop the frontal boundary.   
   OSPO ALPW imagery showed low level moisture rapidly advecting   
   northward into the central U.S. beneath a plume of mid to upper   
   level moisture with origins in the tropical eastern Pacific. Total   
   PW values were estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.4 inches (SPC   
   mesoanalysis) from eastern KS into western IN, which equate to +4   
   to +5 standardized anomalies. The low level moisture return was   
   allowing for the northward advection of instability and erosion of   
   low level CINH amid 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km,   
   supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from eastern KS into   
   western/central MO via 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data. This change in   
   the thermodynamic environment has been reflected in recent   
   infrared satellite imagery showing bursts of colder cloud tops   
   over northern MO and far southern IA.   
      
   As the surface low over central KS moves eastward early this   
   morning, strengthening low level flow will translate into MO and   
   IL with 850 mb speeds locally exceeding 50 kt. Convergence at the   
   nose of 925-850 mb moisture transport will align WSW to ENE or   
   parallel to the mean steering flow. This will set up narrow axes   
   of heavy rainfall with training and potential for hourly rainfall   
   between 1 and 2 inches. The best overlap of low level convergence   
   with moisture/instability will be from northern MO into   
   north-central IL and northwestern IN through 16Z. Isolated   
   flash/urban flooding may result from 2-3 inches of rain in 2-3   
   hours. However, a lack of precipitation for this region of the   
   U.S. over the past couple of weeks (lower than average soil   
   moisture) and warmer than average temperatures (no/negligible   
   frost depth) should limit runoff. Therefore, any flash flood   
   concerns will likely be minor and remain limited to urban or   
   sensitive low lying areas.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_YG17WL1A4Ubdi67KFfO43e18ICjEG2HKhTFDp5vHXyUA4EeS62zo9t6AgrSOJoLIuD2=   
   e1GJtSo6yTGe-RHU4VJf4oo$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   42178726 41658634 40918612 40448688 40038825=20   
               39629015 39199219 39289312 39699398 40409379=20   
               41329161 42118904=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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