TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168033.weather@1:2320/105 2db8b35c   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 280840   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 280838   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Valid 311200Z - 051200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,   
   yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.   
   Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS   
   signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across   
   the southern states through late week. While run-to-run   
   predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective   
   potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of   
   the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis   
   consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears   
   marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and   
   yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual   
   day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/28/2025   
      
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