TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 280455   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 280454   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN   
   MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,   
   and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.   
   A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into   
   the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level   
   flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.   
   At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this   
   morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing   
   southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend   
   from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly   
   winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.   
   A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the   
   low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support   
   scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally   
   near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given   
   strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.   
      
   ...From MO into OH...   
   For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear   
   likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI   
   north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.   
   Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small   
   hail.   
      
   From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast   
   ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO   
   across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable   
   area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating   
   along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal   
   convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a   
   linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring   
   supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a   
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be   
   the primary concern   
      
   ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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