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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   539 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN NEW   
   YORK...   
      
   19Z Update...   
      
   The meteorological reasoning for the Marginal Risk holds today,   
   but the focus for today's categorical risk upgrade was western NY.   
   Flooding concerns are greatest along the Chautauqua Ridge in far   
   western NY given not just the potential heavy rainfall rates in   
   elevated convection, but NOHRSC shows as much as 2-4" of SWE on the   
   ground along the Ridge. The combination of heavy rainfall, brisk   
   southerly winds, and dew points approaching 50 degrees, is a recipe   
   for rapid snow melt. This increases the concern for localized   
   flooding on roads, as well as nearby creeks and streams through   
   Sunday night. In collaboration with BUF, opted to introduce a   
   SLight Risk over western NY where Flood Watches are present.   
      
   Mullinax   
      
   ---Previous Discussion---   
      
   A Marginal Risk upgrade was introduced with this morning's forecast   
   update across a portion of the Great Lakes, in coordination with a   
   couple of the impacted forecast offices. While the atmospheric   
   river event in California is long over, the remnant moisture   
   therefrom has continued east and will be harnessed by a developing   
   storm system across the Midwest. The low center will track from   
   near Kansas City Sunday morning to over Lake Huron by Monday   
   morning. In that time it will deepen from around 1000 mb Sunday   
   morning to around 974 mb Monday morning. This rapid cyclogenesis   
   will allow the moisture to the tune of 5 sigma above normal for   
   this time of year, as well as IVT values over 750 kg/m/s will   
   support additional dynamic lift along the warm front which extends   
   east of the low, and along its cold front to the low center's   
   south.   
      
   Elevated convection resulting in locally heavy rainfall is   
   likely, despite the fast movement of any convective cells. Bare   
   ground is in place across most of the Marginal Risk area. Due to   
   lack of flora, it should take longer for the rainfall to penetrate   
   into the ground, resulting in more runoff. Urban areas in the rain   
   shield, including Chicago, Detroit, and Buffalo could see urban and   
   small stream flooding. Across upstate New York, at the higher   
   elevations some snowpack remains, especially east of the lower   
   lakes. This too could locally contribute to rising stream and creek   
   levels leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aIKhRl2rjhfeAur_AUkqjGsIPf0oW6MnJ6TdKad6Xex=   
   -w0_DXewb7chJezxQrePXDh-L4GUVq9Ows9OEHTk-fqbOOs$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aIKhRl2rjhfeAur_AUkqjGsIPf0oW6MnJ6TdKad6Xex=   
   -w0_DXewb7chJezxQrePXDh-L4GUVq9Ows9OEHTkIchuooQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aIKhRl2rjhfeAur_AUkqjGsIPf0oW6MnJ6TdKad6Xex=   
   -w0_DXewb7chJezxQrePXDh-L4GUVq9Ows9OEHTklqiKHyc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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