TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168020.weather@1:2320/105 2db7fbab   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 271936   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 271934   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the   
   contiguous United States.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.   
   Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm   
   potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of   
   northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous   
   discussion below for additional details.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/27/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will   
   move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains   
   through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany   
   this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface   
   temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential   
   for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this   
   afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.   
      
   Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight   
   across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong   
   cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid   
   MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a   
   low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated   
   thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and   
   central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast   
   to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe   
   hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer   
   shear will be strong.   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426