TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168019.weather@1:2320/105 2db7f7d4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 271920   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 271919   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday   
   through Monday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be   
   maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into   
   portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday   
   through Monday night, but with little further amplification.  At the   
   same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream   
   troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through   
   the northwestern Gulf Basin.  However, the primary embedded short   
   wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are   
   generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great   
   Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.   
      
   In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of   
   northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading   
   edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of   
   the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard   
   by late Monday night.  Along this frontal zone, models do indicate   
   the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of   
   Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the   
   northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.   
   However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive   
   of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and   
   thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10   
   percent.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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