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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 270745   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   245 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 27 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN   
   ILLINOIS THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK...   
      
   A Marginal Risk upgrade was introduced with this morning's forecast   
   update across a portion of the Great Lakes, in coordination with a   
   couple of the impacted forecast offices. While the atmospheric   
   river event in California is long over, the remnant moisture   
   therefrom has continued east and will be harnessed by a developing   
   storm system across the Midwest. The low center will track from   
   near Kansas City Sunday morning to over Lake Huron by Monday   
   morning. In that time it will deepen from around 1000 mb Sunday   
   morning to around 974 mb Monday morning. This rapid cyclogenesis   
   will allow the moisture to the tune of 5 sigma above normal for   
   this time of year, as well as IVT values over 750 kg/m/s will   
   support additional dynamic lift along the warm front which extends   
   east of the low, and along its cold front to the low center's   
   south.=20   
      
   Elevated convection resulting in locally heavy rainfall is   
   likely, despite the fast movement of any convective cells. Bare=20   
   ground is in place across most of the Marginal Risk area. Due to=20   
   lack of flora, it should take longer for the rainfall to penetrate=20   
   into the ground, resulting in more runoff. Urban areas in the rain=20   
   shield, including Chicago, Detroit, and Buffalo could see urban and   
   small stream flooding. Across upstate New York, at the higher=20   
   elevations some snowpack remains, especially east of the lower=20   
   lakes. This too could locally contribute to rising stream and creek   
   levels leading to isolated instances of flash flooding.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9IcYYo1ZOh4KxicLAi_TxSr3ioOu2iua6scLPxn6u2fS=   
   c6VIbQQxgkJVm_o4FpDG4DWQw_MdPe2tKKNj8dVmFoSKakE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9IcYYo1ZOh4KxicLAi_TxSr3ioOu2iua6scLPxn6u2fS=   
   c6VIbQQxgkJVm_o4FpDG4DWQw_MdPe2tKKNj8dVmZTmMM7I$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9IcYYo1ZOh4KxicLAi_TxSr3ioOu2iua6scLPxn6u2fS=   
   c6VIbQQxgkJVm_o4FpDG4DWQw_MdPe2tKKNj8dVmlTIMsII$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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