TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168002.weather@1:2320/105 2db7455f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 270639   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 270637   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE   
   OH AND TN VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday   
   afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and   
   Tennessee Valleys.   
      
   ...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...   
   Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of   
   an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the   
   High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a   
   surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.   
   Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly   
   sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest   
   Gulf by 12Z Monday.   
      
   Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on   
   Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern   
   Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is   
   plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager   
   buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears   
   supportive of only small hail.   
      
   Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based   
   destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence   
   tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance   
   remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW   
   suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg   
   should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to   
   a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by   
   afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no   
   surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.   
   Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS   
   should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by   
   early evening.   
      
   The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of   
   surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in   
   whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday   
   night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become   
   increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying   
   low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for   
   convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains   
   negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for   
   wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426