TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167992.weather@1:2320/105 2db6bfa2   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 262108   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   408 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Dec 27 2025 - 00Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   *** Heavy Wintry Mix through tonight for the Northeast ***   
      
   *** Major Winter Storm Develops over the Great Lakes Sunday Night,   
    Spreading through the Northeast Monday ***   
      
   ...Northeast...=20   
   Day 1... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major=20   
      
   The variety of ptypes continue tonight for the central=20   
   Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic with heavy snow bands over eastern NY   
   through southern New England and the NYC metro. The main note is   
   the northward shift in the heavy snow a bit north of the NYC metro   
   that had been in the axis the past. Day 1 snow probs for >8" are   
   30-50% in the lower Hudson Valley, over western CT, and eastern   
   Long Island and around 10% in NYC proper. The stubborn cold air   
   damming will keep freezing rain continuing over the Laurel   
   Highlands and western MD until precip diminishes overnight.=20   
      
      
   ...The West...=20   
   Days 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate=20   
      
   Potent northern stream trough axis over Vancouver Island this   
   afternoon will continue to dig south as it tracks east over the   
   northern Rockies through Saturday night before shifting over the   
   northern Plains Sunday. Meanwhile the positively-tilted southern=20   
   stream trough along the northern CA Coast will swing east and cross   
   the central Rockies Saturday night. Long wave ridging behind this   
   trough finally brings an end to this active winter pattern.=20   
      
   Moderate snow continues for the Cascades and Sierra Nevada tonight.=20   
   Snow levels drop on the WA Cascades to 1000ft by early evening and   
   probably 500ft overnight, to 2000ft over the OR Cascades, and   
   around 4000ft on the Sierra. Day 1 Snow probs for >6" are 50-90%=20   
   on the WA/OR Cascades including for the Snoqualmie and Santiam=20   
   passes, and 40-60% for the Sierra Nevada.   
      
   Moisture streaming over the Intermountain West ahead of the trough   
   axis will continue to produce widespread snow over terrain through   
   Saturday. Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 60-90% over the northeast OR   
   and ID/western MT ranges where snow levels will drop to 2000ft   
   tonight and to ground level Saturday before snow tapers off. Those   
   >6" probs are 40-80% for western WY ranges down through UT and   
   western CO where snow levels drop from 6000-8000ft now to   
   4000-7000ft overnight and 2000-6000ft Saturday.=20   
      
   On Saturday night the cold front associated with the strong trough   
   will quickly drop through the central High Plains and produce   
   moderate to heavy snow across the CO Rockies and some banded snow   
   for the Denver metro and east. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are over   
   50% for most of the CO ranges, with 30-60% probs for >2" broadly   
   along and east of the Palmer Divide.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes/Northeast...   
   Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major   
      
   The potent northern stream trough reaching the northern Plains   
   Sunday will close off as it digs over Iowa through the day with the   
   surface low undergoing rapid intensification as it shifts northeast   
   over Michigan Sunday night into Monday. A rapid CAA pattern within   
   the northwest side of the cyclone will lead to comma head snowfall   
   Sunday afternoon over MN/western WI which quickly becomes lake=20   
   enhanced over northern WI/all of the U.P. Sunday night. Intense   
   flow behind the very deep system will produce strong lake effect=20   
   snow in its wake Monday.=20   
      
   Day 2.5 snow probs for >12" are 30-60% along the northern U.P.   
   and WI shorelines with most of that falling in just 12 hours. Those   
   probs for >12" increase to 50-80% and spread to far northern L.P.   
   for Day 3 once there's 24 hours worth of the event. Strong wind   
   will certainly make this event more significant.=20   
      
   Warm air advection ahead of this low will result in a wintry mix   
   over the Northeast with Day 3 0.1" ice probs 40-80% in north-   
   central PA through southern/eastern NY and central New England.   
      
   Key Messages have been initiated for this system.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect for the Great Lakes and   
   the Northeast as linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8iGycxItJwAT0tIRVCrVSluWRyYd9CAQJjq7Y7Pwue0Yw=   
   CKgq_E7UciAIWIwfjsvdiX4ZFHRBj1cVRx1BzK0jI3P0ac$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8iGycxItJwAT0tIRVCrVSluWRyYd9CAQJjq7Y7Pwue0Yw=   
   CKgq_E7UciAIWIwfjsvdiX4ZFHRBj1cVRx1BzK0LZzA8_U$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426