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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 261931   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 261930   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night   
   from the Southern Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio and Mid   
   Mississippi Valleys.   
      
   ...Mid MS to the OH Valleys...   
   An initially broad and multi-faceted positive-tilt upper trough over   
   the central US is forecast to undergo substantial amplification as   
   it moves eastward toward the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night.   
   The corresponding surface low will quickly intensify as it moves   
   eastward from KS/MO across northern IL. A trailing cold front will   
   also strengthen, with low-level moisture transport ahead of the   
   front (50s and 60s F surface dewpoints) aiding in modest   
   destabilization Sunday evening.   
      
   Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing over the MO valley   
   vicinity early in the period associated with the strong low-level   
   theta-E advection. This convection may remain elevated for much of   
   the day as it tracks along a stalled frontal zone from northern   
   MO/IL vicinity eastward into OH/IN and southern lower MI. Still,   
   some elements may eventually become near-surface based with weak   
   MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) potentially supporting a few stronger gusts   
   near the surface.   
      
   Additional surface-based storms will likely develop within the   
   moistening warm sector over the northern Ozarks and mid MS valley   
   late Sunday afternoon. A low-topped convective band could organize   
   along the front as it moves east/southeast from the MS/OH Valleys   
   toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the trough and surface low   
   deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt)   
   low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great   
   Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While   
   buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg  MUCAPE), this should be   
   sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the   
   surging cold front. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief   
   tornado or two are possible as the line moves quickly eastward over   
   the Mid MS and eventually the OH Valley Sunday night.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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