TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167988.weather@1:2320/105 2db698ab   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 261822   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 261822=20   
   NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-262215-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2275   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1222 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Western New York into northeast Pennsylvania   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 261822Z - 262215Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A favorable zone for heavy snow banding is becoming   
   established across parts of western New York into northeast   
   Pennsylvania. Snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will be possible   
   under any band that develops within this region through late   
   afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Precipitation banding has begun to emerge across   
   portions of NY/PA  over the past couple of hours amid strengthening   
   warm air advection between 850-700 mb and increasing, albeit modest,   
   broad-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. Dry air in   
   the lowest few kilometers has limited precipitation amounts at the   
   surface for most locations thus far; however, automated observations   
   and web cams between Buffalo and Rochester, NY have begun to report   
   moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility reductions between 1/2 to   
   1/4 mile at times under one of the consolidating bands.   
   Concurrently, NY Mesonet observations are depicting steady surface   
   moistening with dewpoints climbing by 1-2 F/hour as low-level   
   profiles saturate under the heavier precipitation bands.=20   
      
   While the heaviest snowfall will likely occur later this evening as   
   the upper wave moves over the region, these observed trends suggest   
   that the onset of moderate/heavy snowfall rates is likely beginning.   
   Areas that can maintain residence time under an established snow   
   band may observe snowfall rates as high as 1-2 in/hour as soon as   
   low-level saturation occurs. Favorable overlap of synoptic and   
   mesoscale ascent will continue to promote snow band development   
   within the warm advection branch of the disturbance, which will   
   maintain heavy snowfall potential at least through late afternoon   
   and possibly into the late evening hours.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/26/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-ostHtvcFH75AYZ1bFVWV7Y_xJsLL1Zv_5WU-U0rfQfrK36EDPmLmUS-ppnrMDaswiE1DLUGg=   
   0pAxbPhL1Ohzi_fUsY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...   
      
   LAT...LON   41207542 42427792 42737817 42997819 43217807 43367793   
               43467752 43467703 43377656 42097437 41687429 41427455   
               41177512 41207542=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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