TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167984.weather@1:2320/105 2db67aa3   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 261614   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 261613=20   
   PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-262115-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2274   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1013 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northern Maryland...central to northwest   
   Pennsylvania...and far western New York   
      
   Concerning...Freezing rain=20   
      
   Valid 261613Z - 262115Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A wintry mix, eventually transitioning to primarily light   
   to moderate freezing rain, will spread southeast through the   
   afternoon into northwest and central Pennsylvania and western New   
   York.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports and ASOS/AWOS observations are   
   beginning to show areas of light freezing rain and sleet spreading   
   from far northeast OH into northwestern PA and far western NY over   
   the past 1-2 hours. Although regional 12z soundings sampled a stout   
   dry layer from the surface to about 3 km, the recent sleet/freezing   
   rain reports indicate that preceding precipitation has allowed for   
   adequate saturation in the mid/low-levels to allow hydrometeors to   
   reach the surface. Consequently, surface sleet/freezing rain amounts   
   will likely increase through the afternoon as more widespread   
   precipitation (attendant to a mid-level wave currently upstream   
   across southeast MI) overspreads the region.=20   
      
   Correlation Coefficient imagery from KPBZ and KCCX are sampling a   
   melting layer between 4-8 kft ARL over central PA, which should be   
   maintained through the afternoon amid increasing warm advection   
   between 925-850 mb. Near the surface, weak thermal advection below   
   0.5 km should maintain sub-freezing temperatures and support   
   freezing hydrometeors. Although a mix of sleet/freezing rain is   
   expected over the next couple of hours, a transition to primarily   
   freezing rain is anticipated this afternoon as the depth/strength of   
   the warm nose aloft increases. Latest forecast guidance supports   
   this scenario and suggests that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05   
   to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible across central PA into far western   
   NY - especially under heavier precipitation bands and/or where   
   precipitation rates are locally enhanced by weak convective   
   processes.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/26/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5C1gyexuQ_g2-TLCDOvuHi7fH4ZtGemRIpMr0OeIFL4H4p5VYGW1ub0TO59K24Jyf7IhQPMkJ=   
   rDIEyT51-bhM_xlBrU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...   
      
   LAT...LON   42397956 42537915 42517885 40907699 40487663 40117667   
               39707684 39537725 39457795 39547855 39687892 39977920   
               40187931 40427948 40537956 41428044 41768079 41958070   
               42148015 42397956=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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