TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167976.weather@1:2320/105 2db62c93   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 260812   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 260811   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0211 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO   
   TN/KY/OH...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday   
   night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and   
   Tennessee Valleys.   
      
   ...MO/AR to TN/KY/OH...   
   Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of   
   an upper trough, as it progresses from the High Plains to the   
   North-Central States. This will induce deepening of a surface   
   cyclone from near the Ozarks to the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant   
   cold front will accelerate on Sunday night as it quickly moves east   
   across the OH Valley and south into the Northwest Gulf.   
      
   Isolated to scattered elevated convection within the strengthening   
   low-level warm conveyor should persist, yielding a northern limiter   
   to potential severe thunderstorms later in the day through Sunday   
   night. Outside of the likely too cool/stable 00Z NAM, bulk of   
   preferred guidance suggest weak surface-based destabilization may   
   occur as a broad plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints   
   becomes established ahead of the front and deepening cyclone. Richer   
   boundary-layer moisture with at least mid 60s surface dewpoints   
   should largely hold over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South.   
      
   Late afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the Mid-MS   
   Valley/Ozarks vicinity. Amid broadening large-scale ascent, upscale   
   growth into a thin but long QLCS seems plausible along the front   
   given the orientation of the deep-layer winds. Despite only minimal   
   to meager surface-based instability on Sunday night, intensifying   
   wind fields throughout the troposphere could support a convective   
   line with/without lightning. This may yield a threat of sporadic   
   strong to severe gusts producing at least isolated damaging winds.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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