TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167975.weather@1:2320/105 2db62c91   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 261041   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 261040=20   
   MIZ000-261645-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2273   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0440 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Lower Michigan   
      
   Concerning...Freezing rain=20   
      
   Valid 261040Z - 261645Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity and coverage   
   while spreading eastward across parts of central and southern Lower   
   Michigan during the 12-16Z time frame.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data shows a swath of mixed   
   precipitation spreading eastward into Lower MI -- where surface   
   pressure is falling rapidly (-4 to -5 mb in the last two hours over   
   west-central Lower MI). This activity is focused ahead of an   
   eastward-advancing shortwave trough and within a broad zone of   
   low-level warm advection. As the trough continues eastward this   
   morning and gains some amplitude, deep-layer forcing for ascent will   
   strengthen while focusing over Lower MI. As a result, precipitation   
   will increase in both intensity and coverage as the low/mid-levels   
   saturate amid the strengthening ascent. Additionally, steepening   
   midlevel lapse rates should yield weak elevated buoyancy and a   
   potential convective enhancement to precipitation rates.=20   
      
   As low-level warm advection strengthens, a substantial warm nose   
   centered around 850 mb will favor complete melting of descending   
   hydrometeors before re-freezing at the surface. The strong lift   
   (with potential convective enhancement) and aforementioned thermal   
   profile will contribute to freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05   
   inches per hour (locally higher under the more robust convectively   
   enhanced cores). The onset of the heavier rates is expected between   
   12-16Z, but should persist beyond that period while spreading   
   eastward across southeastern Lower MI.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 12/26/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8QFHWMTuJrtYbaMphFFSumzJRk86IrIEa0Chefwg1UKuUSA8DSTP6FSREzlExD0_gJ1690xm2=   
   gt6WSnAYgyRedb2fv4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...   
      
   LAT...LON   42448488 42888549 43378619 43738637 43958622 44168555   
               44138477 43868383 43478256 43038230 42188279 41918342   
               42018398 42448488=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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