TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167973.weather@1:2320/105 2db61f00   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   AWUS01 KWNH 260943   
   FFGMPD   
   CAZ000-261900-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279...Corrected   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   443 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Corrected for typo and addition within first paragraph   
      
   Areas affected...northern CA coast   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 260935Z - 261900Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated pockets of showers containing hourly rainfall   
   in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range will continue a limited threat for   
   flooding/flash flooding across portions of the northern CA coast   
   through about 19Z.   
      
   DISCUSSION...0930Z water vapor imagery from GOES West showed a   
   mid-level low/vorticity max ~150 miles west of Cape Mendocino,   
   slowly advancing eastward toward the northern CA coast.   
   GPS-derived PW values along the northern CA coast were 0.4 to 0.6   
   inches with 850-700 mb mean layer winds peaking near 40 kt from   
   the southwest. While the corresponding surface low (992 mb) is   
   expected to weaken over the next 6-12 hours, increasing ascent   
   ahead of the approaching low to mid-level low and a subtle   
   increase in IVT values (up to ~350 kg/m/s) are expected to bring   
   yet another round of locally heavy rain to the region through the   
   remainder of the night into the late morning.   
      
   Peak hourly rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inches will be possible as   
   the low approaches where weak and shallow MLCAPE up to ~500 J/kg   
   will be present per recent RAP forecasts. While these rates are   
   not typically a problem for the climatologically wet northern CA   
   coast, 7-day rainfall values are well above average and saturated   
   to nearly saturated soils could be sensitive to additional   
   rainfall. There will be potential for an additional inch or so of   
   rain through 19Z which may result in isolated landslides/mudslides   
   and/or urban flooding through the rest of the morning hours.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!7cUis92kCnAv1SYIX1BnkZfC8PO2z0muo6pS5fcSJJR-u8sv3L0rZAz7Zy5cTv2v7Azu=   
   HfhxekhLcAPq-eldFmJi8x8$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   41252417 41232369 40852368 40352349 40052341=20   
               39722325 39282297 38762261 38562324 38892388=20   
               39392423 40222470 40722458 41112433=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426