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   CAZ000-261800-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1278   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   358 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...eastern Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys into   
   Sierra Nevada Foothills   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 260856Z - 261800Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A localized concern for additional flooding/flash   
   flooding will exist across portions of the Sacramento and San   
   Joaquin Valleys into the Sierra Nevada foothills through roughly   
   18Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be possible,   
   along with isolated hourly rainfall in excess of 0.5 inches.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery from 0845Z showed scattered   
   showers extending from the southern Sacramento Valley into the   
   northern San Joaquin Valley and eastward into the Sierra Nevada.   
   RAP analysis data and GPS-derived PWs ranged from 0.5 to 0.9   
   inches and 850-700 mb winds were 30-50 kt from the southwest. Low   
   level convergence has helped to focus a couple of SW to NE   
   oriented axes of showers with brief training and hourly rainfall   
   locally in excess of 0.5 inches per MRMS data. However,   
   surrounding gauge data and a vast majority of the region contained   
   peak hourly rainfall in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.   
      
   As a longwave upper level trough axis over the eastern Pacific   
   continues to translate eastward over the next 12 hours, total PW   
   values and 850-700 mb wind speeds are forecast to gradually lower   
   through 18Z which should have the effect of reducing higher hourly   
   rainfall potential. Snow levels varied from 5000 ft (northern   
   locations) to 8000 ft (southern locations) across the Sierra   
   Nevada and lowering of these values will occur as the upper trough   
   and colder air moves inland today. Until then however, localized   
   potential will remain for brief areas of heavy rain with an   
   additional 1-2 inches expected for some locations through 18Z. Due   
   to largely saturated soils in many locations from recent heavy   
   rainfall, additional heavy rainfall may lead to isolated   
   flood/flash flooding including the possibility of   
   landslides/mudslides.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!45fiue6QPyLVEwXtDh44fVO0rFR_8ROvcippO1XrAHZq_0Qqenz0GymvvfOdP477gfGz=   
   6QOztOkgmfg_Ye0ShoHvXw8$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   39552097 39132068 38832050 38532036 38082008=20   
               37741980 37371944 36931893 36101864 35491856=20   
               35401886 35721919 36281965 37002024 37722093=20   
               38682127 39302143=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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