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   CAZ000-261000-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1277   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   113 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...western Transverse Ranges / southern CA   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 260612Z - 261000Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding is likely to continue across   
   the western Transverse Ranges through 10Z (2 AM PST). Peak hourly   
   rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and additional rainfall over the   
   next 4 hours of 1 to 2 inches is expected, mainly from eastern   
   Santa Barbara into Ventura counties.   
      
   DISCUSSION...MRMS reflectivity and local gauge reports showed   
   moderate to heavy rain continued to track across the Channel   
   Islands into the western Transverse Ranges. Hourly rainfall has   
   varied between 0.5 and 1.0 inches since 00Z and 3-hr totals ranged   
   from roughly 0.75 to 1.5 inches ending 06Z, mainly within central   
   Ventura County.  This region of the western Transverse Ranges has   
   been situated within a relative max in precipitable water values   
   between 1.0 and 1.2 inches with a localized max observed on OSPO   
   Layered PW imagery from the surface to ~500 mb pointed into the   
   western Transverse Ranges. 850-700 mb layer winds were from the S   
   to SSW at 25-40 kt with little change over the past few hours. The   
   00Z VBG sounding and more recent aircraft-derived soundings showed   
   instability was weak (MLCAPE less than or equal to 250 J/kg) and   
   shallow, limiting lightning potential.   
      
   Nearly stationary to perhaps slow eastward translation is forecast   
   for the moisture axis through 10Z, out ahead of a larger scale   
   mid/upper level trough axis over the eastern Pacific. Therefore,   
   similar ingredients should remain in place for the region with   
   850-700 mb winds between 25-40 kt supporting IVT values between   
   300-500 kg/m/s. Weak/shallow instability combined with orographic   
   ascent into the terrain will continue to favor peak hourly   
   rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Additional rainfall through 10Z of   
   1-2 inches is expected (mainly within eastern Santa Barbara into   
   Ventura County) which is likely to maintain localized flash   
   flooding due to saturated soils and the majority of additional   
   rainfall becoming runoff.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!7xdk377ew3-HfJXl6wWFOeZ5TCj1i389a59mUWjUuYeZNMCESE3gRtvArR_MIkdiH-sG=   
   PqIOgdVI09d7-rdd3wKjnfM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35222013 34881960 34961930 34941907 34771869=20   
               34691858 34181855 33921903 34241965 34402042=20   
               34842055=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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