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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 260544   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 260542   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1142 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today.   
   General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan   
   into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great   
   Basin.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   A slow-moving positive tilt upper trough will move across CA and   
   into the Great Basin through tonight, with a weakening surface low   
   dropping southeastward into northern CA. Modest southwest flow aloft   
   will support continued moist conditions with areas of more   
   concentrated rain and embedded thunderstorms. In general, veering   
   low-level winds and/or weak instability will likely preclude much of   
   a severe thunderstorm risk, though stronger gusts may occur   
   coincident with shallow convection in favored areas of terrain   
   across parts of CA.   
      
   To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Great   
   Lakes and OH Valley during the day and toward the Mid Atlantic late,   
   with a plume of 50s F dewpoints surging into OH. Several hundred   
   J/kg elevated MUCAPE will develop, supporting scattered   
   thunderstorms. While deep-layer effective shear may support cellular   
   storm mode, generally weak instability levels are unlikely to   
   support severe hail.   
      
   ..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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