TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167961.weather@1:2320/105 2db598df   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 260011   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 260011=20   
   CAZ000-260215-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2272   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 260011Z - 260215Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe   
   is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward   
   the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band   
   of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side   
   of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong   
   midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in   
   association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not   
   particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and   
   wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty   
   winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it   
   surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe   
   thunderstorm watch is unlikely.   
      
   ..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_ipbBgoIXiGSRHkVRLvpoPjSHBtVzXhPdOUJcrkqZruelPAsS9qFq4JNo2E2t5ZyBkedzo1Fn=   
   5NSAEUVZas97fFv8Rg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA...   
      
   LAT...LON   35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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