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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 251627   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 251626   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF   
   COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps   
   a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much   
   of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.   
      
   ...California...   
   Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the   
   eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving   
   northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level   
   jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of   
   the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco   
   Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.   
      
   Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly   
   isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection   
   today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist   
   across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface   
   temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft   
   (reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater   
   MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced   
   west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support   
   occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently   
   deep/sustained updraft development.   
      
   Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield   
   a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk   
   area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level   
   flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually   
   re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough   
   and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.   
   A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may   
   continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts   
   and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the   
   severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.   
      
   ..Gleason/Supinie.. 12/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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