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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 251245   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 251244   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0644 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE   
   CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   An isolated risk for severe gusts and localized wind damage, and   
   perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today along much of the   
   California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.   
      
   ... California ...   
   Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level low over   
   the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving   
   northward along the northern CA and OR coast.  An upstream mid-level   
   speed max and associated vorticity max will move cyclonically   
   through the base of the eastern Pacific low/trough and approach San   
   Francisco Bay and northern CA this evening and subsequently move   
   into eastern OR by early Friday morning.   
      
   Strong to locally severe thunderstorms mainly capable of a   
   severe-wind hazard will potentially continue on an isolated basis   
   this morning from the Central Valley/central coast and perhaps   
   include portions of southern CA.  The low CAPE/high shear   
   environment will potentially support strong/locally severe   
   convection contingent on sufficient updraft development.  Forecast   
   low-level hodographs will remain sufficiently enlarged to yield a   
   low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk (level   
   1 of 5) area.  By this afternoon, model guidance indicates low-level   
   flow will weaken before re-intensifying towards evening in   
   association with the arrival of the next speed max.  A mix of linear   
   bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an   
   intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief   
   tornado into tonight.   
      
   ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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