TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167939.weather@1:2320/105 2db4d436   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 251012   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 251012=20   
   CAZ000-251115-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2271   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0412 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...San Francisco Bay vicinity   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 251012Z - 251115Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts will be focused over the   
   San Francisco Bay vicinity over the next hour or so.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from KMUX show an uptick in   
   convective intensity/organization just offshore of the San Francisco   
   Bay area. These small linear structures with embedded rotation will   
   pose a risk of damaging wind gusts as they move ashore during the   
   next hour or so. While less certain, a brief tornado cannot be   
   entirely ruled out, given ample low-level flow/shear (around 450   
   m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMUX VWP). The overall risk is expected to   
   remain too localized for a watch.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/25/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4Xm6r7MckSbE_w-RfmjgG2Q-d-yUfW3RH05nuLP4FDJ193WHAevE5t393lcX3kXojz3_wPSi2=   
   lTySBkKPoyriFN2gtU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...   
      
   LAT...LON   37062238 37672265 38192302 38342279 38282250 38052217   
               37452191 36982181 36822198 36812215 37062238=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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