TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167935.weather@1:2320/105 2db4b1fa   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 250746   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 250746=20   
   CAZ000-251015-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2270   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of the North Coast of California   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 250746Z - 251015Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging convective gusts and possibly a   
   brief tornado is increasing, with the greatest threat expected   
   between 09-12Z.   
      
   DISCUSSION...As of 0730Z, radar data from KMUX shows an expansive,   
   strongly forced band of stratiform rain with gradually   
   deepening/intensifying convective elements. As a robust   
   negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying jet continue toward   
   the coast, this activity will spread east-northeastward into the   
   North Coast of California during the 09-12Z time frame. Despite   
   limited buoyancy, the strong forcing for ascent and strengthening   
   deep-layer flow/shear should favor a modest uptick in convective   
   organization/intensity as it approaches the coast. Given the   
   strongly forced nature and 50+ kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL, the   
   primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. However, a brief   
   tornado cannot be ruled out, aided by upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1 km   
   SRH and at least neutral boundary-layer static stability along the   
   immediate coastal areas.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/25/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_tjgE6HrSofcYt_vEpX9dA-5izEznpjXmh05FiNx0ZW_vgzlvYghTZQktEjSEx5y_kzBpJM4m=   
   TmMxCkh21UUIldgJRw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...EKA...   
      
   LAT...LON   36862224 37742283 38562351 39312403 39912430 40352457   
               40682447 40782431 40702392 40392355 40002312 39372247   
               38552192 37162146 36682149 36502170 36432200 36862224=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426