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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   201 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A Moderate Risk remains in effect for a large portion of the   
   Central CA coast through much of the Transverse Ranges north of=20   
   L.A. While the main AR has pushed south and weakened, the   
   amplifying upper trough offshore and strengthening lee-side jet   
   streak will reinvigorate deep-layer forcing downstream across   
   Southern CA. Meanwhile, the colder air aloft will help provide some   
   deep-layer instability (MUCAPES 250-500 J/Kg), thus supportive of   
   additional rounds of 0.50-1.00 inch/hr rainfall rates as a   
   secondary axis of elevated PWATs (0.80-1.10") and IVTs (500-600=20   
   Kg/m/s) traverses the Moderate Risk area. Additional rainfall=20   
   amounts of 2 to 4+ inches are expected within the Moderate Risk=20   
   area, with the guidance (especially high-res CAMs) indicating=20   
   isolated additional totals between 5 and 7+ inches across the=20   
   southern slopes of the Transverse Ranges. As such, we continued to=20   
   outlook a "high-end" Moderate Risk -- denoting a more enhanced or=20   
   >50% neighborhood probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood=20   
   guidance -- across the San Rafael and southern Sierra Madre Ranges,   
   where the 00Z HREF indicated 80%+ probabilities of additional=20   
   rainfall exceeding 3" through 12Z Fri, along with 30-50%=20   
   probabilities of rainfall totals exceeding 5".=20   
      
   Elsewhere, the Slight Risk area was expanded across parts of the   
   Central Valley based on Wednesday's rainfall along with the   
   deterministic and probabilistic QPF Christmas Day through 12Z Fri.   
   No changes were made to the broader Marginal Risk area based on the   
   latest (00Z) guidance/trends.=20   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN=20   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Minor changes were made to the Slight and Marginal Risk areas from   
   yesterday's Day 3 ERO. The secondary (weaker) Atmospheric River=20   
   will be waning, however given the significant accumulations=20   
   leading up to this period, soils will remain hyper sensitive to=20   
   any additional precipitation, particularly across the Transverse=20   
   Range and surrounding locations. As such, a Slight Risk area was=20   
   maintained for this part of the state along with a Marginal Risk=20   
   that extends up the coast toward San Francisco and along the=20   
   foothills of the Sierra Nevada Range.   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Dec 27 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BSGoKzGeOqM3u6QWUb149WcIjjVKcy9WFoKWRKxWm9t=   
   EiTi1nVAQaIEt8ZhEdfLH08YDdspN-r1bal1Ka5mXNtnyNM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BSGoKzGeOqM3u6QWUb149WcIjjVKcy9WFoKWRKxWm9t=   
   EiTi1nVAQaIEt8ZhEdfLH08YDdspN-r1bal1Ka5mZeH24E0$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4BSGoKzGeOqM3u6QWUb149WcIjjVKcy9WFoKWRKxWm9t=   
   EiTi1nVAQaIEt8ZhEdfLH08YDdspN-r1bal1Ka5mQGjlXuc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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