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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 250538   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 250537   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1137 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE   
   CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts   
   and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along much   
   of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.   
      
   ... Synopsis ...   
      
   A  highly amplified pattern will persist across the US as a deep   
   trough over the eastern Pacific is maintained and a ridge builds   
   over the central US. A series of embedded shortwave troughs within   
   the eastern Pacific trough will impact the West Coast on Christmas   
   and Christmas night.   
      
   ... California ...   
      
   The first of these shortwave troughs will be moving across the   
   region at the start of the forecast period, bringing with it a band   
   of strongly forced convection, likely located across portions of the   
   central coast of California into the Central Valley. As the   
   shortwave trough takes on an increasingly negative tilt, a 50-60   
   knot southerly low-level jet will be maintained allowing for   
   sufficient low-level theta-e advection to support a modest 100-300   
   J/kg of surface-based CAPE. As the convective band interacts with   
   this strong low-level kinematic field, gusty/damaging convective   
   winds may be realized at the surface, particularly with the stronger   
   convective elements. Forecast low-level hodographs ahead of this   
   convective line feature sufficient low-level curvature to support a   
   brief tornado should any convective element realize true   
   surface-based buoyancy. As the morning progresses, the   
   aforementioned shortwave trough will lift north then northwest   
   within the broader cyclonic flow across the eastern Pacific whereas   
   the band of convection slowly advances south and east. By midday,   
   the low-level wind fields should weaken sufficiently in response to   
   the departing shortwave trough to reduce the potential of damaging   
   winds/tornadoes across far southern California.   
      
   By mid-afternoon, another shortwave trough will approach the central   
   and northern California coast. In response, the low-level wind   
   fields will once again strengthen, albeit perhaps not to the extent   
   as with the morning wave. Another band or bands of strongly forced   
   convection are expected to develop across the eastern Pacific and   
   approach coastal areas of central California after 00Z (4 PM PT). As   
   was the case with the morning convection, the strongest convective   
   elements may be capable of mixing down the stronger winds aloft   
   resulting in the potential for isolated strong thunderstorm winds.   
      
   ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 12/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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