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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 241730   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 241728   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1128 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts   
   and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along parts   
   of the central California Coast.   
      
   ...Central California Coast...   
   A broad upper low with multiple embedded disturbances will continue   
   to linger over the West Coast Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a   
   stream of moisture associated with an ongoing atmospheric river will   
   continue overspreading much of California where numerous convective   
   showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during   
   the day and continuing into early Friday. Buoyancy will be weak, but   
   MUCAPE peaking around 400 J/kg amidst the strong westerly flow could   
   support a couple marginally severe storms.   
      
   One of the more intense embedded features will likely move onshore   
   across parts of central CA early in the period before lifting   
   northward across southern WA Thursday evening. A strong offshore low   
   and cold front will likely support a broken band of low-topped   
   storms moving onshore early. Beneath a 50 to 60 knot southwesterly   
   low-level jet, flow aloft may mix down to the surface supporting   
   marginally severe gusts. Additionally, moderate shear in the lowest   
   few km could support a brief tornado with any transiently organized   
   storms.   
      
   A second embedded impulse is forecast to approach the coast farther   
   south into early Friday. Ascent ahead of the trough and a second   
   weaker cold front will help support another band of low-topped   
   storms. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding buoyancy for this   
   round given the overnight timing and multiple rounds of rain prior.   
   Still, some CAM guidance shows a narrow frontal band of low-topped   
   storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado moving onshore   
   over the central Coast before 12z Friday.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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