TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167911.weather@1:2320/105 2db3ac8f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 241311   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 241311=20   
   CAZ000-241445-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2268   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0711 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Central/Southern California Coast   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 241311Z - 241445Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Localized risk for strong to severe gusts and perhaps a   
   brief waterspout/tornado may increase over the next couple hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Radar data from KVBX over the last hour or so depicts a   
   north/south-oriented band of shallow/cellular convection with   
   transient rotation streaming northward across the Channel Islands   
   toward Point Conception. Over the next couple hours, a modest   
   increase in boundary-layer moisture/low-level theta-e toward the   
   immediate coast and localized terrain effects may support some   
   increase in updraft intensity. Despite limited buoyancy, strong   
   deep-layer flow/shear and low-level hodograph curvature (200-300   
   m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KVBX/KVTX VWP) may favor a risk of strong to   
   locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado with   
   any sustained surface-based convection that can evolve over the next   
   couple hours.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7BDUPBk3OxXxV-vC9LjYA6KcPynl-_SY1tjo0LRb9TFhm42Do9_9cE5IKQXDfoBa7TUDAvFsA=   
   TAi9rKm8SRriQABrPY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...   
      
   LAT...LON   34351884 34131872 33981882 34011915 34281951 34331997   
               34392065 34572066 34692051 34711990 34561925 34351884=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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