TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167910.weather@1:2320/105 2db3a905   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 241256   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 241255   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0655 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL   
   CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   An isolated risk for localized severe gusts and perhaps a brief   
   tornado will exist today into tonight along much of the California   
   coast and the central valley.   
      
   ...California...   
   Water-vapor early this morning shows an upper trough over the   
   eastern Pacific with a lead disturbance moving north near the   
   northern coast of CA/southwest OR.  Farther south, a mid-level   
   vorticity maximum west of southern CA will move to the Sierra Nevada   
   by early evening.  Upstream of this disturbance and farther west,   
   models show a more potent mid-level shortwave trough moving   
   northeast towards the northern CA coast by 25/12z.  In the low   
   levels, a notable deepening of a cyclone is forecast tonight over   
   the eastern Pacific to the west of the northern coast of CA.   
      
   Zone of persistent and strong low-level WAA regime will aid in   
   maintaining a persistent rain shield with shallow convection from   
   Point Conception southward along the coast into the LA Basin this   
   morning.  Scant buoyancy will limit updraft vigor/depth, but intense   
   flow (reference KVBX, KVTX WSR-88D VAD data) in the lowest 2-km MSL   
   may enable an isolated risk for wind damage/severe gusts near the   
   coast and in terrain-favored locales.  A brief tornado cannot be   
   ruled out, but this threat would likely depend on the development of   
   stronger embedded convective elements within the larger rain shield.   
      
   Later this afternoon, some convection-allowing models show   
   low-topped convection developing within the central valley in an   
   environment characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and a   
   modestly moist airmass.  A mini supercell risk is possible with an   
   attendant isolated threat for a brief tornado and wind.   
      
   By early evening, another round of low-topped convection is progged   
   to develop west of the coast.  This activity will focus from near   
   Point Conception northward along the coast tonight as strengthening   
   ascent accompanies the approach of the next mid-level wave.   
   Elongated hodographs and weak buoyancy will support potential storm   
   organization with the stronger storms and an isolated threat for   
   severe wind gusts/brief tornado.   
      
   ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/24/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 10/0 1 102/401 103/705 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 124/5016 128/187 129/14 153/7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/0   
   SEEN-BY: 218/1 215 601 700 810 840 860 880 220/10 20 30 90 221/6 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 266/512 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0 105 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 301/1 218/700 229/426