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   FOUS30 KWBC 241126=20   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   626 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Thu Dec 25 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Highly anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux on the order of 5+   
   standard deviations above the mean will yield extremely heavy   
   rainfall ahead of the amplifying mid/upper trough located offshore   
   of the California coast. The heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA   
   will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch   
   totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+. Expect a well defined   
   south to north precip band in this anomalous moisture flux axis   
   with hourly rainfall rates of 0.50-1.5"+ likely. The potential for   
   high hourly rainfall totals will accentuate runoff over soil that   
   is relatively dry and or over recent burn scar areas. This will   
   pose a significant threat of flash flooding, landslides, rock falls   
   and mud slides. The greater than normal travel during the   
   Christmas Holiday will likely expose a potentially larger number of   
   people to these lift threatening hazards and was taken into   
   consideration with the upgrade to high risk.   
      
   Although snow levels will be lowering across the Sierra Nevada and   
   adjacent locations and much of the highest elevations will have   
   significant snow, some of the lower elevations could receive   
   additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches. The Slight Risk areas were=20   
   combined to cover heavy rain tracking eastward across eastern=20   
   California, southern Nevada and into southern Utah and western=20   
   Arizona where areal averages up to 1 to 2+ are forecast.=20   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A Moderate Risk remains in effect for a large portion of the coast   
   from San Luis Obispo through much of the Transverse Ranges north=20   
   of L.A. Expect much of the heaviest rain to occur on D2/Wednesday,=20   
   but by Christmas Day, there will still be one more front that will=20   
   cross the area from west to east, which will result in another=20   
   round of heavy rainfall in southern California. Since this next=20   
   front will arrive soon after the heaviest rains from Wednesday,=20   
   expect there will be outsized impacts from the heavy rainfall=20   
   associated therewith. Showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms=20   
   will impact much of coastal southern California and the adjacent=20   
   mountains. While each one will be fast moving, the rivers and=20   
   streams all across southern California will likely already be=20   
   flooding, so any additional rainfall, especially where heavy, will=20   
   make ongoing flooding worse.   
      
   Campbell/Wegman   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 27 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The atmospheric river will be waning however given the significant   
   accumulations leading up to this period soils remain hyper   
   sensitive to any additional precipitation, particularly across the   
   Transverse Range and surrounding locations. As such, a Slight Risk   
   area was maintained for this part of the state along with a   
   Marginal Risk that extends up the coast toward San Francisco and   
   along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Range.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3smdov31adEx_46ZtgzHGNVHiQtHxIkQ2hZBgVgBXZh=   
   cXv8cpn4kxQZcrtqXzo8DqdcC-s_ORwpTrEI14N-6ROM158$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3smdov31adEx_46ZtgzHGNVHiQtHxIkQ2hZBgVgBXZh=   
   cXv8cpn4kxQZcrtqXzo8DqdcC-s_ORwpTrEI14N-i7D0-k0$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3smdov31adEx_46ZtgzHGNVHiQtHxIkQ2hZBgVgBXZh=   
   cXv8cpn4kxQZcrtqXzo8DqdcC-s_ORwpTrEI14N-SSgtrsg$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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