TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167903.weather@1:2320/105 2db38106   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 241006   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 241005=20   
   CAZ000-241130-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2266   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0405 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Central/Northern California Coast   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 241005Z - 241130Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Convectively enhanced severe wind gusts may impact coastal   
   areas from Monterey Bay to the Bay Area during the next couple   
   hours.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMUX shows a loosely organized   
   line segment with a northern book-end mesovortex moving   
   east-northeastward at around 50 kt toward the Monterey Bay area.   
   Despite limited buoyancy (especially over land areas), very strong   
   wind fields (60+ kt in the lowest 1 km AGL per KMUX VWP) and   
   relatively moist conditions/neutral static stability in the boundary   
   layer may support convectively enhanced severe wind gusts and   
   perhaps a brief tornado risk over the next couple hours as this   
   activity moves ashore over the immediate coastal areas.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5W-mz8QqXnFDeX8uB0IvFvy4AQ7VAwnjmT8QWaSpoCduI_ioJtFz2dWT_n8y9x4pigBe6AX88=   
   EcSu98fDV11xKzFDHU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MTR...   
      
   LAT...LON   37422270 37632277 37802249 37762222 37592200 36852160   
               36492157 36352186 36492212 37422270=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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