TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167887.weather@1:2320/105 2db2b203   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 231923   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 231922   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025   
      
   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   COASTAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief   
   tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and   
   southern California Coast.   
      
   ...California...   
   Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA   
   coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the   
   broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within   
   strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses   
   will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly   
   lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front   
   associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast   
   prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front   
   may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for   
   a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for   
   a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low   
   to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could   
   support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early   
   along the coast.   
      
   The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA   
   coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main   
   core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and   
   persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak   
   destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing   
   into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged   
   hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of   
   damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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