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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 231725   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 231724   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025   
      
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF   
   COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and   
   potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into   
   Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland   
   across the San Joaquin Valley.   
      
   ...California Coast...   
   West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep   
   troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the   
   eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore   
   over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening   
   onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the   
   southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.   
      
   A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and   
   adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL   
   wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the   
   potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and   
   surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the   
   central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped   
   band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move   
   onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.   
      
   ...San Joaquin Valley...   
   Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C),   
   strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet   
   will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and   
   central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model   
   soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind   
   profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a   
   few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and   
   a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before   
   convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and   
   weakens.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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