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   SPC AC 231259   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0659 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025   
      
   Valid 231300Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST   
   OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A localized threat for severe gusts may develop late tonight near   
   the coast in northern California.   
      
   ...CA...   
   A potent shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern CA   
   coast late tonight as an attendant midlevel speed max moves from the   
   eastern Pacific into northern CA.  Considerable differences were   
   noted in some of the latest models with the 00z EC/UKMET operational   
   runs considerably weaker with cyclone development than 00-06z runs   
   of the NAM/GFS/Canadian and the 00z HREF mean.  Hedging towards a   
   slightly more intense forecast solution and related wind field   
   depictions.  This forecast scenario coincides with a surface front   
   surging inland toward the end of the period, around 24/12z. Although   
   pre-frontal buoyancy will remain quite limited (100-200   
   J/kg MUCAPE), the deeper low-topped convection may yield a   
   severe-wind risk during the 08-12z period near the immediate coast   
   before buoyancy diminishes inland.   
      
   ...South TX...   
   Weak midlevel disturbance is lifting north into deep south TX late   
   this evening. Forecast soundings suggest modest SBCAPE will develop   
   by mid day as this feature progresses north of the international   
   border. Wind fields should remain weak, along with forcing, so the   
   risk of severe is expected to remain low this period.   
      
   ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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