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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 230521   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 230519   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1119 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm potential will increase along the California coast late   
   tonight. Organized severe is not currently forecast.   
      
   ...CA...   
      
   Strong short-wave trough is forecast to approach the northern CA   
   coast after 24/06z, then eject inland by sunrise as midlevel speed   
   max intensifies and translates into northern CA. Latest model   
   guidance suggests this feature will induce a surface low that should   
   deepen as it approaches the northern CA/OR coast. This evolution   
   will allow a notable surface front to surge inland toward the end of   
   the period, around 24/12z. Wind profiles are expected to increase   
   markedly ahead of this feature, but pre frontal buoyancy will remain   
   quite limited. Forecast soundings support this with roughly 100-200   
   J/kg MUCAPE expected just ahead of the front. Given the strength of   
   the wind field there is some concern that a few strong gusts could   
   be noted with deeper convection; however, this activity should   
   develop very late (after 09z), possibly becoming more problematic   
   during the day2 period. At this time will not introduce severe   
   probabilities due to the expected late-period development, but will   
   continue to monitor for possible upgrade.   
      
   ...South TX...   
      
   Weak midlevel disturbance is lifting north into deep south TX late   
   this evening. Forecast soundings suggest modest SBCAPE will develop   
   by mid day as this feature progresses north of the international   
   border. Wind fields should remain weak, along with forcing, so the   
   risk of severe is expected to remain low this period.   
      
   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/23/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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