TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167861.weather@1:2320/105 2db163c4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 221937   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 221936   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0136 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025   
      
   Valid 222000Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous outlook reasoning remains on track and no changes were   
   made with this update.   
      
   ..Bunting.. 12/22/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough and associated baroclinic   
   zone will move across the WA coast later this afternoon.   
   Low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy of   
   sufficient depth (through -20 C at the equilibrium level) for charge   
   separation and isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection   
   along and behind the front.  Shallow, weakly rotating convection   
   will be possible near the WA coast per the KLGX VWP/hodograph, but   
   the threat for severe storms appears too limited to warrant an   
   outlook area.  Farther south, the potential for isolated lightning   
   flashes will slowly wane through the day across the northern Sierra   
   Nevada, where weak buoyancy rooted above the surface will likewise   
   diminish.   
      
   Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge (with unusually high   
   geopotential heights) covers the southern Plains/Gulf coast.  An   
   embedded/weak midlevel trough will rotate slowly north-northwestward   
   around the periphery of the ridge, bringing weak ascent and an   
   associated moisture plume into south TX.  Per the observed deepening   
   of the moist layer at BRO in the past 12 hours, pockets of surface   
   heating/destabilization could support isolated thunderstorm   
   development across south TX this afternoon.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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