TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167857.weather@1:2320/105 2db1421e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 221714   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 221712   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the   
   contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the   
   mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As   
   the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will   
   also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave   
   trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern   
   CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft   
   will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow   
   and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR.   
      
   ...West Coast...   
   As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow   
   will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture   
   across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level   
   temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded   
   shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak   
   destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped   
   convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase   
   in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible,   
   especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant   
   buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low.   
      
   Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern   
   Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface   
   reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and   
   increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level   
   temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far   
   south TX.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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