TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167852.weather@1:2320/105 2db104af   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 221252   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 221250   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025   
      
   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to   
   advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this   
   evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will   
   contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning   
   flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few   
   lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the   
   California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a   
   moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy.   
      
   A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal   
   Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville   
   observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow   
   for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas.   
   Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings   
   suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any   
   convection that evolves across this region should remain below   
   severe levels.   
      
   ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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