TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167830.weather@1:2320/105 2db00f51   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 211925   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 211924   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the   
   contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.   
      
   ...California...   
   Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a   
   mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much   
   of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant   
   surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of   
   northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.   
   Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this   
   region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching   
   shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists   
   regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough   
   instability will exist to support a meaningful change for   
   surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and   
   generally modest lapse rates.   
      
   Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak   
   but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday   
   to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as   
   mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough   
   overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available   
   guidance, this potential still appears a bit too   
   uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the   
   CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated   
   convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has   
   been expanded across more of CA with this update.   
      
   ..Gleason.. 12/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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