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   FOUS30 KWBC 210820   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   320 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 21 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 22 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR=20   
   PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A significant surge in Pacific moisture will overspread much of=20=20   
   northern California during this period within the reinforced=20   
   atmospheric river and will lead to widespread heavy rainfall.=20   
   Within the Moderate Risk area over the portions of the Sierra   
   Nevada range there are several hours of >50% HREF probabilities of   
   at least 0.50"/hr rates between 12Z Sun and 03Z Mon, while HREF=20   
   probabilities of >8" within the 24 hour Day 2 period are >60% for=20   
   much of the area. There will likely be many areas where flash   
   flooding may arise, along with sloughing and debris flows. For   
   additional details please refer to WPC MPD #1267.   
      
   Campbell/Hurley   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 22 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 23 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR   
   PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The atmospheric river will move southward during this period as=20   
   will the heavy rainfall footprint spread further down the Sierra=20   
   Nevada Range and along the coastline. Much of the same area of the   
   Sierra Nevada is projected to receive additional 2-3 inches over   
   the water logged area from Day 1. A Moderate Risk was maintained=20   
   along with expanding a touch to the south. Multi-day accumulations   
   will likely be well into the double digits by this time and leading   
   to several instances of rapid runoff, sloughing and debris flows=20   
   along the foothills/adjacent locations.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 23 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR=20   
   PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ALONG THE   
   COASTLINE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA....   
      
   Another reinforcing surge of Pacific moisture will be moving   
   onshore northern California while the southward moving impulse will   
   lead to a rapid uptick in rainfall in southern California. The   
   latest guidance is depicting another 1 to 4 inches for northern and   
   central California and 2 to 4+ for the higher terrain of southern   
   California. A Slight Risk covers much of the coastline from central   
   to northern California and into the northern part of the Sierra   
   Nevada. Additionally, another Slight Risk is in place for the=20   
   favored terrain of southern California.=20   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZWlx3zlDor8YtH0O3GJJYEGdSigNvOAcTcmru0OBXZM=   
   vbvlWdT2CX3OiyXCbW_17Xt0PQVSF5j1Ca8kWrd_WRpt07w$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZWlx3zlDor8YtH0O3GJJYEGdSigNvOAcTcmru0OBXZM=   
   vbvlWdT2CX3OiyXCbW_17Xt0PQVSF5j1Ca8kWrd_VCRDz4g$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZWlx3zlDor8YtH0O3GJJYEGdSigNvOAcTcmru0OBXZM=   
   vbvlWdT2CX3OiyXCbW_17Xt0PQVSF5j1Ca8kWrd_5QI1QbM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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