TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167816.weather@1:2320/105 2daf7101   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 210809   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 210809   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0209 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United   
   States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A dominant mid- to upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across   
   central portion of the Lower 48 states.  An upper trough will   
   encroach on the West Coast, and a lead mid-level trough will move   
   quickly northeast from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA   
   coastal area late Tuesday night.  Scant to weak buoyancy will   
   gradually develop Tuesday night in the vicinity of the CA coast and   
   coastal range from near Point Conception to near the OR border.   
   Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread   
   inland concurrent with increasing large-scale forcing and   
   instability.  Some forecast soundings depict a deep,   
   lower-tropospheric moist layer co-located with intense low-level   
   shear, which could imply storm organization being possible with the   
   strongest low-topped storms.  Uncertainty is high at this time for   
   such a scenario given appreciable model variability.  Farther east,   
   a weak upper trough near the lower Rio Grande Valley will undercut a   
   mid- to upper-level ridge over the central US.  Weak convection is   
   possible in association with this upper feature, but confidence in   
   attaining 10-percent thunderstorm probabilities is low at this time.   
      
   ..Smith.. 12/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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