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| WEATHER | Messages from the national weather servi | 41,475 messages |
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| Message 39,608 of 41,475 |
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| HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion |
| 21 Dec 25 00:57:42 |
TZUTC: 0000 MSGID: 167810.weather@1:2320/105 2daf0b92 PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0 TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0 BBSID: CAPCITY2 CHRS: ASCII 1 FORMAT: flowed FOUS30 KWBC 210057 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 757 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sun Dec 21 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 21 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... 0100 UTC Update: Minor changes made to the Marginal Risk area over parts of Northern CA based on the latest guidance trends, including the most recent HREF and RRFS QPF exceedance probabilities. Per both of these ensembles, rainfall rates aoa 0.50"/hr become more=20 likely (probs aoa 50%) between 06-07Z across parts of the outlook=20 area, with more widespread areas >60% (especially over the northern Sierra and western foothills) expected between 09-12Z. Through=20 12Z, both HREF and RRFS probabilities of at least 3" of rainfall=20 are >50% across the outlook region, with 30-35% probs of 5+ inch=20 totals over the western slopes of the northern Sierra, in and=20 around burn scar areas between Cascade and Meadow Valley. Hurley Previous discussion... Still expecting areas within the northern Sierra Nevada to receive the most appreciable precipitation given the trajectory of the IVT pulse and persistent 850-600mb moisture feed with added upslope components near the terrain. Greatest flood concerns likely in the adjacent foothills on the windward side of the Sierra Nevada. Highest probs for >5" are across the I-80 corridor at the California/Nevada border with the highest terrain still likely to be snow, limiting the threat for flash flooding for the period to that of a Marginal. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 21 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 22 2025 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... 2030 UTC Update: Expanded the Slight and Moderate Risk areas based on the latest (12Z) guidance QPFs and trends. Within the Moderate Risk area, there are several hours of >50% HREF probabilities of at least 0.50"/hr rates between 12Z Sun and 03Z Mon, while HREF probabilities of >8" within the 24 hour Day 2 period are >60% for much of the area. Hurley Previous Discussion... A significant uptick in moisture will be surging into northern California during this period within the reinforced atmospheric river and will lead to widespread heavy rainfall and greater threat for flash flooding, particularly for portions of the Sierra Nevada foothills where multi-day totals of 5-10" are forecast. A Moderate Risk area was raised for this period given more locations will be at risk for rapid runoff and potential debris flows. The areal extent of the Moderate will continue to be monitored and may be adjusted with future updates. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 22 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 23 2025 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... 2030 UTC Update: Expanded the Slight and Moderate Risk areas slightly, especially on the southern periphery, based on the latest (12Z) guidance QPFs and trends. The Slight Risk area now includes the far northern portions of the San Joaquin Valley and with a little bit more of the central Sierra Foothills. Hurley Previous Discussion... The ongoing atmospheric river will persist while sinking a bit southward toward central California, spreading rainfall further down the Sierra Nevada Range and along the coastline. With the reduction of rain on the northern periphery the threat for excessive rainfall will remain at a Marginal level. A Moderate Risk was raised again for much of the area identified during the day 2 period and for locations a touch to the south. This part of the state is expected to pick up another 3+ inches which will tip the 3 day accumulations over 12 inches for some areas. Any additional rainfall will lead to runoff and increase the potential for sloughing and debris flow along the foothills/adjacent locations. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Z_z02my1YvFyiRhzQm11ffGLHpynNRG9kEkTpphB9_2= 4Bwuqt6erCAV4dpCmoyX_N4uzLt62m2x8sDFLpPE7Z8DruU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Z_z02my1YvFyiRhzQm11ffGLHpynNRG9kEkTpphB9_2= 4Bwuqt6erCAV4dpCmoyX_N4uzLt62m2x8sDFLpPEgwnMe5c$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Z_z02my1YvFyiRhzQm11ffGLHpynNRG9kEkTpphB9_2= 4Bwuqt6erCAV4dpCmoyX_N4uzLt62m2x8sDFLpPE_j16j78$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105) SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35 PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426 |
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