TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167774.weather@1:2320/105 2dad7478   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 192001   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 191959   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025   
      
   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and   
   Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized   
   severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   Only minor changes have been made to the existing General   
   Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across   
   eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong   
   to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not   
   expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds   
   associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold   
   front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support   
   strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining   
   convection.   
      
   ..Dean.. 12/19/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/   
      
   ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...   
   A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level   
   flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the   
   Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will   
   likewise develop eastward across these regions through the   
   afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A   
   loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,   
   and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of   
   hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating   
   with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in   
   place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should   
   continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm   
   advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor   
   thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection   
   to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the   
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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