TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167753.weather@1:2320/105 2daca866   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 190530   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 190529   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID ATLANTIC...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid   
   Atlantic today.   
      
   ...Mid Atlantic...   
      
   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough   
   over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model   
   guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt   
   orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max   
   develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr   
   height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England   
   where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong   
   feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide   
   background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance   
   is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of   
   convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the   
   period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with   
   this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that   
   0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind   
   within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this   
   activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for   
   strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east   
   along the front.   
      
   Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not   
   introduce wind probabilities at this time.   
      
   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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