TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167751.weather@1:2320/105 2dac683d   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 190057   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 190056   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing   
   occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain   
   possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi   
   Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late   
   tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.   
      
   ...01z Update...   
      
   Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this   
   evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into   
   southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift   
   across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic   
   trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar   
   data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal   
   convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern   
   sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is   
   convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS   
   into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater   
   buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000   
   J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this   
   instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east   
   across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will   
   remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening.   
   Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues.   
      
   Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks   
   region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk.   
      
   ..Darrow.. 12/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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