TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167750.weather@1:2320/105 2dac67c7   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 190055   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 190054=20   
   TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190230-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2264   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...parts of the Deep South   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 642...   
      
   Valid 190054Z - 190230Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for   
   at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms   
   consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across   
   east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW   
   issuance is unlikely.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is   
   still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL   
   area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its   
   proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN   
   sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX   
   soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts.   
   But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew   
   points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther   
   north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection   
   relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a   
   QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts   
   capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as   
   surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of   
   central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist.   
      
   ..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9qalG_dv8LlPnH__XnZrHl2Yz7GxtD7n-Ks8aYB2Las0rDLOa1KNpW7_935Wg_YUaPkJeMT5x=   
   DfP9_u_r-amWtWozbI$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...   
      
   LAT...LON   32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708   
               35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589   
               33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830   
               32538919=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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