TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167747.weather@1:2320/105 2dac4749   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 182236   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 182236=20   
   ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-190000-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2263   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle   
   TN   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 182236Z - 190000Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two   
   appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should   
   spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through   
   mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has   
   increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal   
   confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north   
   to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and   
   behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE   
   from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening.   
   Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells   
   developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic   
   supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens   
   later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL.   
      
   ..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4zD0XSz6DNpPcP9gWX_itvYHkalorK9roN8zAh4qQSDpjIsaWL7Mf-vrlQbawfNrSSbh2Yh3V=   
   Y0We8x-QPos9GeVR_g$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...   
      
   LAT...LON   34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907   
               32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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