TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167746.weather@1:2320/105 2dac3c2d   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 182149   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 182148=20   
   INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182345-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2262   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0348 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northern   
   Mississippi...western Tennessee...western Kentucky...and southern   
   Indiana   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 182148Z - 182345Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible as convection   
   along a strong cold front pushes east across the Mid-Mississippi   
   River Valley and lower Ohio River Valley. Watch issuance is not   
   expected.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Convection along a strong cold front has started to   
   show a gradual uptick in intensity across eastern AR into MS/TN per   
   recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. This comes as the cold   
   front begins to impinge on a narrow plume of returning moisture into   
   the MS Valley characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low   
   60s. Latest RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE has increased to around   
   500 J/kg as far north as the I-40 corridor in northeast AR/western   
   TN, which should support further intensification over the next few   
   hours. While thunderstorm intensity will generally be modulated by   
   the meager buoyancy/poor lapse rates, a very strong low-level   
   kinematic environment (40-50 knot winds are noted in regional VWPs   
   within the 0-1 km layer) will support the potential for damaging   
   gusts.=20   
      
   One 50 knot gust was recently observed at KHKA in far northeast AR,   
   but velocity imagery from KPAH and KNQA shows only embedded swaths   
   of stronger winds within the line. This suggests that the wind   
   threat should remain fairly localized to narrow corridors. While the   
   potential for damaging winds will be greatest across AR/MS/TN within   
   the axis of appreciable mixed-layer buoyancy, sporadic damaging   
   winds are possible with northward extent into western KY and   
   southern IN. Given the limited thermodynamic environment, the   
   overall intensity of the developing QLCS should remain sufficiently   
   low to preclude watch issuance.   
      
   Additionally, weak convective cells within a pre-frontal trough   
   across central/north-central MS are being monitored. These cells are   
   developing within the axis of MLCAPE and where low-level SRH is   
   fairly strong (approximately 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). While confidence   
   is low in whether these cells will intensify due to weaker forcing   
   for ascent and the meager thermodynamic environment, a wind/tornado   
   threat could materialize if sufficient intensification can take   
   place.   
      
   ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7HYa-fwGIxcZBOdISXNW-tEFMOAnW34AFKJYI775Z7FB2SqDvaOfDaFiq5vIlEnNa5z5PCrEt=   
   4SpfBp4Bs5F9n194DA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...   
   LZK...   
      
   LAT...LON   33688883 33048927 32938967 32969009 33039039 33489141   
               33779182 33959198 34129205 35399048 37058912 38668799   
               39198774 39418737 39368654 39268600 39028585 38628589   
               38118594 37488620 37028653 33688883=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426