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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early   
   Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday   
   night. Severe storms are not forecast.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great   
   Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject   
   northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.   
   At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with   
   a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas   
   Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by   
   midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds   
   will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,   
   with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.   
      
   ...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...   
   Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher   
   reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection   
   from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will   
   rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward   
   and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool   
   boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal   
   zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window   
   of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving   
   offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates   
   aloft suggest minimal overall risk.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 12/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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