TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167736.weather@1:2320/105 2dabf4ca   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 181644   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 181644=20   
   ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2260   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and   
   western Kentucky   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 181644Z - 181845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward   
   through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage   
   across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western   
   Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited   
   thermodynamic environment.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized,   
   but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong   
   synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing   
   minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few   
   kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow   
   for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front.   
   Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP   
   depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix   
   to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning   
   production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts   
   appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already   
   been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic   
   environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the   
   afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity.   
      
   ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9K5KI7mCM2-4PVExzzlbsyFLBVFcOTQX-EhlkNQyn3XoopHv927TOESdkRz6b5W3NZ20ckyHR=   
   n220RzYXmLORidDGi8$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...   
      
   LAT...LON   38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115   
               36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034   
               40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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