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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025   
      
   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL   
   NORTH CAROLINA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated   
   strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and   
   Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the   
   Carolinas late tonight.   
      
   ...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...   
   A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern   
   Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and   
   spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight   
   over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls   
   on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will   
   accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds   
   within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm   
   sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the   
   front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager   
   instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of   
   frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later   
   this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary   
   layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,   
   but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the   
   Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of   
   Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively   
   enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.   
      
   ...Carolinas...   
   Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through   
   the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an   
   increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust   
   strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and   
   modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,   
   and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,   
   albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based   
   destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal   
   areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass   
   modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also   
   possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland   
   (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..   
      
   ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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